Validation · College basketball
Walk-forward backtestEvery past game predicted using only information from before it., 20,968 games, 2023-2026
BrierMean squared error of win probabilities. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip. Kelix .186 · closing market .180
The market was sharper. Shown anyway.
Model
Opponent-adjusted ratings, rest, travel, injuries.
10,000 simulated games per matchup.
CalibratedProbabilities are mapped to how often teams with that probability actually won in the backtest. on past results.