Sports / Model vs market

Lines.

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Odds
Kelix next to the market.
Kelix
–
Model
Kalshi
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Exchange
Polymarket
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Exchange
DraftKings
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Sportsbook

Win probability for Team 1, margin removed from sportsbook prices. Gap is Kelix minus the market, in percentage points.

Backtest
Games, walk-forward1,960
Seasons2019–2025
Winner accuracy64.0%
Brier score.223
Model
Simulations per matchup10,000
RatingsOpponent-adjusted
Adjusts forRest, travel, injuries
ProbabilitiesCalibrated
Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Kelix Lines