Kelix Lines / Public research
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Baylor: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Baylor a heavy 95.2% favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected margin of 24.0 points and a projected total of 146.4. The largest difference among matched quotes is Polymarket, which implies 13.0% for Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 8.2 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff win probability
- 4.8%
- Baylor win probability
- 95.2%
- Projected Arkansas-Pine Bluff spread
- +24.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 146.4
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Baylor is the home team.
Model vs market for Arkansas-Pine Bluff
All probabilities below refer to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread | 13.0% | 4.8% | -8.2 pp |
Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.