Kelix Lines / Public research
Arkansas State vs Alabama: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 7:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Alabama a heavy 95.2% favorite over Arkansas State, with a projected margin of 25.0 points and a projected total of 157.7. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 1.5% for Arkansas State: 3.3 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Arkansas State win probability
- 4.8%
- Alabama win probability
- 95.2%
- Projected Arkansas State spread
- +25.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 157.7
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Alabama is the home team.
Model vs market for Arkansas State
All probabilities below refer to Arkansas State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 1.5% | 4.8% | +3.3 pp |
Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College basketball games
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.