Kelix Lines / Public research

Coppin State vs George Mason: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes George Mason a heavy 97.7% favorite over Coppin State, with a projected margin of 27.0 points and a projected total of 129.1. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 1.5% for Coppin State: 0.8 percentage points below the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Coppin State win probability
2.3%
George Mason win probability
97.7%
Projected Coppin State spread
+27.0
Projected total (mean)
129.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . George Mason is the home team.

Model vs market for Coppin State

All probabilities below refer to Coppin State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint1.5%2.3%+0.8 pp

Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.