Kelix Lines / Public research
East Tennessee State vs NC State: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes NC State a heavy 87.8% favorite over East Tennessee State, with a projected margin of 16.0 points and a projected total of 140.7. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 4.0% for East Tennessee State: 8.2 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- East Tennessee State win probability
- 12.2%
- NC State win probability
- 87.8%
- Projected East Tennessee State spread
- +16.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 140.7
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . NC State is the home team.
Model vs market for East Tennessee State
All probabilities below refer to East Tennessee State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 4.0% | 12.2% | +8.2 pp | · Stale |
Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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