Kelix Lines / Public research

Mississippi Valley State vs Oregon: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 11, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Oregon a heavy 97.8% favorite over Mississippi Valley State, with a projected margin of 27.0 points and a projected total of 131.1. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Mississippi Valley State win probability
2.2%
Oregon win probability
97.8%
Projected Mississippi Valley State spread
+27.0
Projected total (mean)
131.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Oregon is the home team.

Model vs market for Mississippi Valley State

All probabilities below refer to Mississippi Valley State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.