Kelix Lines / Public research
North Dakota State vs San Francisco: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes San Francisco a 72.1% favorite over North Dakota State, with a projected margin of 8.0 points and a projected total of 137.7. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 26.0% for North Dakota State: 1.9 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- North Dakota State win probability
- 27.9%
- San Francisco win probability
- 72.1%
- Projected North Dakota State spread
- +8.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 137.7
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . San Francisco is the home team.
Model vs market for North Dakota State
All probabilities below refer to North Dakota State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 26.0% | 27.9% | +1.9 pp | · Stale |
Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.