Kelix Lines / Public research

Saint Mary's vs Nevada: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 8, 2026, 4:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Saint Mary's a 71.6% favorite over Nevada, with a projected margin of 7.0 points and a projected total of 129.1. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Saint Mary's win probability
71.6%
Nevada win probability
28.4%
Projected Saint Mary's spread
-7.0
Projected total (mean)
129.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Neutral venue.

Model vs market for Saint Mary's

All probabilities below refer to Saint Mary's. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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