Kelix Lines / Public research

San Diego State vs New Mexico State: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes San Diego State a 74.5% favorite over New Mexico State, with a projected margin of 9.0 points and a projected total of 134.1. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

San Diego State win probability
74.5%
New Mexico State win probability
25.5%
Projected San Diego State spread
-9.0
Projected total (mean)
134.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Neutral venue.

Model vs market for San Diego State

All probabilities below refer to San Diego State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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