Kelix Lines / Public research

Tarleton State vs San Diego: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes San Diego a 74.4% favorite over Tarleton State, with a projected margin of 9.0 points and a projected total of 138.6. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 33.5% for Tarleton State: 7.9 percentage points above the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Tarleton State win probability
25.6%
San Diego win probability
74.4%
Projected Tarleton State spread
+9.0
Projected total (mean)
138.6

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . San Diego is the home team.

Model vs market for Tarleton State

All probabilities below refer to Tarleton State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint33.5%25.6%-7.9 pp · Stale

Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.