Kelix Lines / Public research

Troy vs Florida State: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

More College basketball comparisons

Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Florida State a heavy 80.3% favorite over Troy, with a projected margin of 12.0 points and a projected total of 141.8. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 4.0% for Troy: 15.7 percentage points below the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Troy win probability
19.7%
Florida State win probability
80.3%
Projected Troy spread
+12.0
Projected total (mean)
141.8

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Florida State is the home team.

Model vs market for Troy

All probabilities below refer to Troy. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint4.0%19.7%+15.7 pp · Stale

Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More College basketball games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.