Kelix Lines / Public research
USC vs California: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 11, 2026, 11:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes California a 70.2% favorite over USC, with a projected margin of 8.0 points and a projected total of 141.6. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.
What does the Kelix model project?
- USC win probability
- 29.8%
- California win probability
- 70.2%
- Projected USC spread
- +8.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 141.6
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . California is the home team.
Model vs market for USC
All probabilities below refer to USC. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.
Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College basketball games
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