Kelix Lines / Public research

UT Rio Grande Valley vs UT Arlington: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes UT Arlington a 65.1% favorite over UT Rio Grande Valley, with a projected margin of 5.0 points and a projected total of 129.4. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

UT Rio Grande Valley win probability
34.9%
UT Arlington win probability
65.1%
Projected UT Rio Grande Valley spread
+5.0
Projected total (mean)
129.4

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . UT Arlington is the home team.

Model vs market for UT Rio Grande Valley

All probabilities below refer to UT Rio Grande Valley. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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