Kelix Lines / Public research

Valparaiso vs Purdue: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 6, 2026, 6:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Purdue a heavy 96.7% favorite over Valparaiso, with a projected margin of 25.0 points and a projected total of 137.5. The largest difference among matched quotes is Polymarket, which implies 15.5% for Valparaiso: 12.2 percentage points above the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Valparaiso win probability
3.3%
Purdue win probability
96.7%
Projected Valparaiso spread
+25.0
Projected total (mean)
137.5

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Purdue is the home team.

Model vs market for Valparaiso

All probabilities below refer to Valparaiso. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint3.0%3.3%+0.3 pp · Stale
PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread15.5%3.3%-12.2 pp · Stale

DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.