Kelix Lines / Public research
Michigan vs Oregon: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Oregon a heavy 79.2% favorite over Michigan, with a projected margin of 11.0 points and a projected total of 40.1. The largest difference among matched quotes is DraftKings, which implies 17.8% for Michigan: 3.0 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Michigan win probability
- 20.8%
- Oregon win probability
- 79.2%
- Projected Michigan spread
- +11.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 40.1
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Oregon is the home team.
Model vs market for Michigan
All probabilities below refer to Michigan. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 17.8% | 20.8% | +3.0 pp | · Stale |
Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College football games
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.