Kelix Lines / Public research
San José State vs Air Force: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Air Force a heavy 86.7% favorite over San José State, with a projected margin of 16.0 points and a projected total of 50.4. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.
What does the Kelix model project?
- San José State win probability
- 13.3%
- Air Force win probability
- 86.7%
- Projected San José State spread
- +16.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 50.4
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Air Force is the home team.
Model vs market for San José State
All probabilities below refer to San José State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.
Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.