Kelix Lines / Public research

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers: model predictions & odds

NFL · Nov 8, 2026, 4:05 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes San Francisco 49ers a heavy 81.6% favorite over Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected margin of 11.0 points and a projected total of 50.8. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Las Vegas Raiders win probability
18.4%
San Francisco 49ers win probability
81.6%
Projected Las Vegas Raiders spread
+11.0
Projected total (mean)
50.8

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version nfl-202611022155. Comparison generated . San Francisco 49ers is the home team.

Model vs market for Las Vegas Raiders

All probabilities below refer to Las Vegas Raiders. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Only the supported player inputs available to the model are included. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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