Kelix Lines / Public research

NFL predictions & market odds

Public comparisons for scheduled NFL games: Kelix simulations beside available market-implied probabilities. Each game page includes its date, model version, data timestamps and limitations.

29 scheduled games between Nov 5, 2026 and Nov 16, 2026 currently have model ratings for both teams. Pages refresh every few minutes and stop generating new forecasts at kickoff or tip-off.

How the NFL model works

NFL games are simulated drive by drive from opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings, with home advantage, travel, rest and available player status. Overtime follows current NFL rules. Each matchup is run 10,000 times with a fixed seed, so the same inputs reproduce the same estimate. Full methodology.

Which markets are compared?

Comparisons can include Kalshi and Polymarket game contracts and DraftKings and FanDuel moneylines when a quote is matched to the same game. Sportsbook prices have their margin removed before comparison. A difference between the model and a market is measured in percentage points; it is not an expected return. Use the odds calculator to convert prices, and read how sports prediction markets compare with sportsbooks.