Kelix Lines / Public research
Chicago State vs Incarnate Word: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 5, 2026, 6:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Incarnate Word a heavy 82.6% favorite over Chicago State, with a projected margin of 13.0 points and a projected total of 135.7. The largest difference among matched quotes is Polymarket, which implies 25.0% for Chicago State: 7.6 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Chicago State win probability
- 17.4%
- Incarnate Word win probability
- 82.6%
- Projected Chicago State spread
- +13.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 135.7
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Incarnate Word is the home team.
Model vs market for Chicago State
All probabilities below refer to Chicago State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 20.5% | 17.4% | -3.1 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread | 25.0% | 17.4% | -7.6 pp | · Stale |
DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.