Kelix Lines / Public research

Maine vs Sacred Heart: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 5, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Sacred Heart a heavy 81.7% favorite over Maine, with a projected margin of 12.0 points and a projected total of 131.5. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 25.0% for Maine: 6.7 percentage points above the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Maine win probability
18.3%
Sacred Heart win probability
81.7%
Projected Maine spread
+12.0
Projected total (mean)
131.5

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Sacred Heart is the home team.

Model vs market for Maine

All probabilities below refer to Maine. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint25.0%18.3%-6.7 pp · Stale
PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread20.5%18.3%-2.2 pp · Stale

DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.