Kelix Lines / Public research

Mercyhurst vs Notre Dame: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 5, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Notre Dame a heavy 90.5% favorite over Mercyhurst, with a projected margin of 18.0 points and a projected total of 133.9. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 4.5% for Mercyhurst: 5.0 percentage points below the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Mercyhurst win probability
9.5%
Notre Dame win probability
90.5%
Projected Mercyhurst spread
+18.0
Projected total (mean)
133.9

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Notre Dame is the home team.

Model vs market for Mercyhurst

All probabilities below refer to Mercyhurst. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint4.5%9.5%+5.0 pp · Stale

Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More College basketball games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.