Kelix Lines / Public research
Milwaukee vs Indiana State: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 11, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Indiana State a heavy 78.3% favorite over Milwaukee, with a projected margin of 11.0 points and a projected total of 141.2. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Milwaukee win probability
- 21.7%
- Indiana State win probability
- 78.3%
- Projected Milwaukee spread
- +11.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 141.2
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Indiana State is the home team.
Model vs market for Milwaukee
All probabilities below refer to Milwaukee. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.
Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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