Kelix Lines / Public research
Milwaukee vs Santa Clara: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 4, 2026, 10:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Santa Clara a heavy 93.8% favorite over Milwaukee, with a projected margin of 22.0 points and a projected total of 146.2. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 5.0% for Milwaukee: 1.2 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Milwaukee win probability
- 6.2%
- Santa Clara win probability
- 93.8%
- Projected Milwaukee spread
- +22.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 146.2
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Santa Clara is the home team.
Model vs market for Milwaukee
All probabilities below refer to Milwaukee. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 5.0% | 6.2% | +1.2 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 5.4% | 6.2% | +0.8 pp | · Stale |
DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.