Kelix Lines / Public research

Stonehill vs Fordham: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 5, 2026, 7:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Fordham a heavy 85.7% favorite over Stonehill, with a projected margin of 14.0 points and a projected total of 121.9. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 4.5% for Stonehill: 9.8 percentage points below the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

Stonehill win probability
14.3%
Fordham win probability
85.7%
Projected Stonehill spread
+14.0
Projected total (mean)
121.9

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Fordham is the home team.

Model vs market for Stonehill

All probabilities below refer to Stonehill. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint4.5%14.3%+9.8 pp · Stale
PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread22.5%14.3%-8.2 pp · Stale

DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More College basketball games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.