Kelix Lines / Public research

Texas State vs UT Rio Grande Valley: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 10, 2026, 7:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes UT Rio Grande Valley a heavy 84.1% favorite over Texas State, with a projected margin of 14.0 points and a projected total of 134.1. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Texas State win probability
15.9%
UT Rio Grande Valley win probability
84.1%
Projected Texas State spread
+14.0
Projected total (mean)
134.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . UT Rio Grande Valley is the home team.

Model vs market for Texas State

All probabilities below refer to Texas State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More College basketball games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.