Kelix Lines / Public research
Toledo vs Michigan State: model predictions & odds
College basketball · Nov 5, 2026, 8:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
More College basketball comparisons
Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Michigan State a heavy 96.3% favorite over Toledo, with a projected margin of 24.0 points and a projected total of 139.4. The largest difference among matched quotes is Polymarket, which implies 13.5% for Toledo: 9.8 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Toledo win probability
- 3.7%
- Michigan State win probability
- 96.3%
- Projected Toledo spread
- +24.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 139.4
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Michigan State is the home team.
Model vs market for Toledo
All probabilities below refer to Toledo. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 2.5% | 3.7% | +1.2 pp | |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint · Wide bid/ask spread | 13.5% | 3.7% | -9.8 pp |
DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College basketball games
- Toledo vs Marshall odds & model
- Michigan State vs Duke odds & model
- Wright State vs Toledo odds & model
- Northern Iowa vs Michigan State odds & model
- Framingham State vs Dartmouth odds & model
- Fairleigh Dickinson vs Butler odds & model
- Concordia-Chicago vs SIU Edwardsville odds & model
- Erskine vs UNC Asheville odds & model
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.