Kelix Lines / Public research
Toledo vs Sacramento State: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 4, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Toledo a heavy 90.5% favorite over Sacramento State, with a projected margin of 21.0 points and a projected total of 54.2. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 94.5% for Toledo: 4.0 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Toledo win probability
- 90.5%
- Sacramento State win probability
- 9.5%
- Projected Toledo spread
- -21.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 54.2
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Sacramento State is the home team.
Model vs market for Toledo
All probabilities below refer to Toledo. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 94.5% | 90.5% | -4.0 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 94.5% | 90.5% | -4.0 pp | · Stale |
DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.