Kelix Lines / Public research

James Madison vs Southern Miss: model predictions & odds

College football · Nov 5, 2026, 8:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes James Madison a 73.9% favorite over Southern Miss, with a projected margin of 11.0 points and a projected total of 58.1. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 84.5% for James Madison: 10.6 percentage points above the model.

What does the Kelix model project?

James Madison win probability
73.9%
Southern Miss win probability
26.1%
Projected James Madison spread
-11.0
Projected total (mean)
58.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Southern Miss is the home team.

Model vs market for James Madison

All probabilities below refer to James Madison. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

Available market probabilities compared with the Kelix estimate
SourceMarketKelixDifferenceCollected
KalshiReference / midpoint84.5%73.9%-10.6 pp · Stale
PolymarketReference / midpoint84.5%73.9%-10.6 pp · Stale

DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More College football games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.