Kelix Lines / Public research
UL Monroe vs App State: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes App State a heavy 93.5% favorite over UL Monroe, with a projected margin of 24.0 points and a projected total of 52.0. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.
What does the Kelix model project?
- UL Monroe win probability
- 6.5%
- App State win probability
- 93.5%
- Projected UL Monroe spread
- +24.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 52.0
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . App State is the home team.
Model vs market for UL Monroe
All probabilities below refer to UL Monroe. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.
Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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