Kelix Lines / Public research
Georgia State vs App State: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 7, 2026, 2:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
More College football comparisons
Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes App State a 72.0% favorite over Georgia State, with a projected margin of 9.0 points and a projected total of 57.7. The largest difference among matched quotes is DraftKings, which implies 36.3% for Georgia State: 8.3 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Georgia State win probability
- 28.0%
- App State win probability
- 72.0%
- Projected Georgia State spread
- +9.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 57.7
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . App State is the home team.
Model vs market for Georgia State
All probabilities below refer to Georgia State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 36.3% | 28.0% | -8.3 pp | · Stale |
Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College football games
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.