Kelix Lines / Public research

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings: model predictions & odds

NFL · Nov 9, 2026, 8:15 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model projects Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings as close to a coin flip, with Buffalo Bills a slight 50.3% favorite, with a projected margin of 1.0 points and a projected total of 46.1. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Buffalo Bills win probability
50.3%
Minnesota Vikings win probability
49.7%
Projected Buffalo Bills spread
-1.0
Projected total (mean)
46.1

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version nfl-202611022155. Comparison generated . Minnesota Vikings is the home team.

Model vs market for Buffalo Bills

All probabilities below refer to Buffalo Bills. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Only the supported player inputs available to the model are included. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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