Kelix Lines / Public research

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets: model predictions & odds

NFL · Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Buffalo Bills a heavy 78.4% favorite over New York Jets, with a projected margin of 10.0 points and a projected total of 52.3. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Buffalo Bills win probability
78.4%
New York Jets win probability
21.6%
Projected Buffalo Bills spread
-10.0
Projected total (mean)
52.3

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version nfl-202611022155. Comparison generated . New York Jets is the home team.

Model vs market for Buffalo Bills

All probabilities below refer to Buffalo Bills. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Only the supported player inputs available to the model are included. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

More NFL games

Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.