Kelix Lines / Public research
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens: model predictions & odds
NFL · Nov 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Jacksonville Jaguars a 59.8% favorite over Baltimore Ravens, with a projected margin of 4.0 points and a projected total of 47.0. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 81.5% for Jacksonville Jaguars: 21.7 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
- 59.8%
- Baltimore Ravens win probability
- 40.2%
- Projected Jacksonville Jaguars spread
- -4.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 47.0
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version nfl-202611022155. Comparison generated . Baltimore Ravens is the home team.
Model vs market for Jacksonville Jaguars
All probabilities below refer to Jacksonville Jaguars. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 81.5% | 59.8% | -21.7 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 81.5% | 59.8% | -21.7 pp | · Stale |
DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Only the supported player inputs available to the model are included. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More NFL games
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.