Kelix Lines / Public research

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions: model predictions & odds

NFL · Nov 15, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model projects New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions as close to a coin flip, with New England Patriots a slight 52.4% favorite, with a projected margin of 1.0 points and a projected total of 49.7. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

New England Patriots win probability
52.4%
Detroit Lions win probability
47.6%
Projected New England Patriots spread
-1.0
Projected total (mean)
49.7

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version nfl-202611022155. Comparison generated . Neutral venue.

Model vs market for New England Patriots

All probabilities below refer to New England Patriots. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Only the supported player inputs available to the model are included. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.