Kelix Lines / Public research

Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Arkansas State: model predictions & odds

College basketball · Nov 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.

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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Arkansas State a heavy 88.3% favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected margin of 17.0 points and a projected total of 147.9. No exchange or sportsbook quote for this game passed the matching and quote-quality checks yet.

What does the Kelix model project?

Arkansas-Pine Bluff win probability
11.7%
Arkansas State win probability
88.3%
Projected Arkansas-Pine Bluff spread
+17.0
Projected total (mean)
147.9

10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cbb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Arkansas State is the home team.

Model vs market for Arkansas-Pine Bluff

All probabilities below refer to Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.

No matched market quotes are currently available for this game. The model estimate above is not a live exchange quote.

Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.

What could change this estimate?

Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.

How to use this comparison

Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.

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