Kelix Lines / Public research
Virginia Tech vs SMU: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
More College football comparisons
Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes SMU a heavy 79.5% favorite over Virginia Tech, with a projected margin of 14.0 points and a projected total of 62.0. The largest difference among matched quotes is DraftKings, which implies 33.6% for Virginia Tech: 13.2 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Virginia Tech win probability
- 20.5%
- SMU win probability
- 79.5%
- Projected Virginia Tech spread
- +14.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 62.0
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . SMU is the home team.
Model vs market for Virginia Tech
All probabilities below refer to Virginia Tech. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 33.5% | 20.5% | -13.0 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 33.5% | 20.5% | -13.0 pp | · Stale |
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 33.6% | 20.5% | -13.2 pp | · Stale |
FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College football games
- Stanford vs Virginia Tech odds & model
- Wake Forest vs SMU odds & model
- UTSA vs Florida Atlantic odds & model
- South Carolina State vs Howard odds & model
- James Madison vs Southern Miss odds & model
- South Florida vs East Carolina odds & model
- Nebraska vs Illinois odds & model
- New Mexico vs Nevada odds & model
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.