Kelix Lines / Public research
New Mexico vs Nevada: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes New Mexico a 74.2% favorite over Nevada, with a projected margin of 10.0 points and a projected total of 43.2. The largest difference among matched quotes is Kalshi, which implies 77.0% for New Mexico: 2.8 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- New Mexico win probability
- 74.2%
- Nevada win probability
- 25.8%
- Projected New Mexico spread
- -10.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 43.2
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Nevada is the home team.
Model vs market for New Mexico
All probabilities below refer to New Mexico. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 77.0% | 74.2% | -2.8 pp | · Stale |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 76.5% | 74.2% | -2.3 pp | · Stale |
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 76.6% | 74.2% | -2.4 pp | · Stale |
FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.