Kelix Lines / Public research
TCU vs Arizona: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 6, 2026, 10:15 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Arizona a heavy 83.6% favorite over TCU, with a projected margin of 14.0 points and a projected total of 37.9. The largest difference among matched quotes is DraftKings, which implies 25.6% for TCU: 9.2 percentage points above the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- TCU win probability
- 16.4%
- Arizona win probability
- 83.6%
- Projected TCU spread
- +14.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 37.9
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Arizona is the home team.
Model vs market for TCU
All probabilities below refer to TCU. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiReference / midpoint | 25.5% | 16.4% | -9.1 pp | |
| PolymarketReference / midpoint | 25.5% | 16.4% | -9.1 pp | |
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 25.6% | 16.4% | -9.2 pp | · Stale |
FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
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Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.