Kelix Lines / Public research
Fresno State vs Utah State: model predictions & odds
College football · Nov 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ET. A public comparison of Kelix model estimates and available market-implied probabilities.
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Across 10,000 simulations, the Kelix model makes Fresno State a 55.4% favorite over Utah State, with a projected margin of 3.0 points and a projected total of 40.9. The largest difference among matched quotes is DraftKings, which implies 54.3% for Fresno State: 1.2 percentage points below the model.
What does the Kelix model project?
- Fresno State win probability
- 55.4%
- Utah State win probability
- 44.6%
- Projected Fresno State spread
- -3.0
- Projected total (mean)
- 40.9
10,000 simulations. Ratings as of 2026-11-02; model version cfb-202611022155. Comparison generated . Utah State is the home team.
Model vs market for Fresno State
All probabilities below refer to Fresno State. Differences are percentage points, not expected returns. Sportsbook margins are removed. Quotes may not be executable at the displayed implied probability.
| Source | Market | Kelix | Difference | Collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsMargin removed | 54.3% | 55.4% | +1.2 pp | · Stale |
Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel: no matched quote in this comparison.
What could change this estimate?
Ratings updates, venue information and available player inputs can change the forecast. Player injury adjustments are unavailable for this matchup. Model error remains even when the simulation is repeatable.
How to use this comparison
Check the exact market’s settlement rules, quote freshness, bid/ask spread, fees and liquidity. A higher model probability is not proof of mispricing or a guaranteed profit. Read the model methodology and limitations.
More College football games
Explore this matchup in the interactive Lines tool. The interactive simulator requires joining; this page’s available comparison is public.